MODEL VERDICT
Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $29.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $32.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $34.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $34.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $36.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $41.78 | +39.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $57.44 | +92.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $49.50 | +65.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $54.76 | +83.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $42.44 | +42.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $48.78 | +63.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $52.52 | +75.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $49.50 | +65.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.44 | +28.7% | 100% | 68 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $22 | $28 | $33 | $39 | $44 |
| Conservative (18%) | $24 | $30 | $35 | $41 | $47 |
| Base Case (27.0%) | $26 | $32 | $38 | $45 | $51 |
| Bull Case (36%) | $27 | $34 | $41 | $48 | $55 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.42 | 15.75 | 10.55 | 24.02 | 4.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.76 | 10.17 | 7.55 | 37.58 | 10.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.54 | 5.38 | 4.09 | 7.52 | 1.14 |
| P/FCF | 51.54 | 21.00 | 10.61 | 123.01 | 62.11 |
| P/FFO | 9.94 | 6.80 | 5.50 | 25.57 | 7.78 |
| P/TBV | 0.76 | 0.65 | 0.38 | 1.76 | 0.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.74 | 0.64 | 0.37 | 1.73 | 0.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.39 | 2.26 | 1.76 | 3.99 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates EGO's fair value at $38.44 vs the current price of $29.86, implying +28.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.98 (P10) to $49.70 (P90), with a median of $44.78.
EGO's current P/E of 11.9x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -39.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover EGO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $52.67 (range: $48.00 — $56.00), implying +76.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (12), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.0% is 15.5 percentage points above the 5-year average (24.6%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$36. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EGO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (24.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2100.0% to approximately $36. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.