MODEL VERDICT
Eagle Point Income Company Inc. (EICA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $24.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $24.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $24.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $24.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $24.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $25.73 | +3.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $18.16 | -27.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $18.83 | -24.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $39.48 | +58.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $24.85 | -0.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.27 | +9.4% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $15 | $21 | $27 | $33 | $39 |
| Conservative (12%) | $16 | $22 | $28 | $34 | $41 |
| Base Case (17.8%) | $17 | $23 | $30 | $36 | $43 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $17 | $24 | $31 | $38 | $45 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.26 | 8.45 | 7.52 | 20.80 | 7.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.07 | 13.56 | 7.18 | 29.99 | 10.38 |
| P/FFO | 29.88 | 12.34 | 4.91 | 89.91 | 40.22 |
| P/TBV | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.11 | 1.63 | 0.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.39 | 1.42 | 1.11 | 1.63 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.55 | 8.48 | 7.69 | 13.56 | 2.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates EICA's fair value at $27.27 vs the current price of $24.92, implying +9.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.15 (P10) to $36.70 (P90), with a median of $28.33.
EICA's current P/E of 8.9x compares to the industry median of 9.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -3.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.3x over 3 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for EICA.
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EICA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (41.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3650.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.