MODEL VERDICT
Edison International (EIX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $74.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $73.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $71.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $65.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $60.99 | Pending | +4.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $244.56 | +227.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $295.35 | +295.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $12.51 | -83.3% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $109.94 | +47.1% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $256.17 | +242.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $1031.48 | +1280.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $164.17 | +119.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $244.56 | +227.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $242.02 | +223.8% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $54 | $54 | $81 | $108 | $135 |
| Conservative (28%) | $59 | $59 | $88 | $118 | $147 |
| Base Case (42.3%) | $66 | $66 | $99 | $131 | $164 |
| Bull Case (57%) | $73 | $73 | $109 | $145 | $181 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.42 | 24.12 | 5.20 | 39.76 | 11.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.39 | 26.93 | 19.97 | 32.39 | 6.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.66 | 12.66 | 2.57 | 14.69 | 4.20 |
| P/FFO | 6.82 | 7.05 | 2.91 | 8.12 | 1.83 |
| P/TBV | 1.51 | 1.47 | 1.31 | 1.75 | 0.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.51 | 1.47 | 1.31 | 1.75 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.66 | 1.73 | 1.20 | 2.08 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates EIX's fair value at $242.02 vs the current price of $74.74, implying +223.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $242.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $171.66 (P10) to $247.64 (P90), with a median of $206.80.
EIX's current P/E of 6.5x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (38 peers in the group). This represents a -69.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
36 analysts cover EIX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.33 (range: $57.00 — $79.00), implying -8.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (13), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 24.3% is 15.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.9%), with a Z-score of +2.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$107. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EIX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.3σ, meaning margins are 2.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4340.0% to approximately $107. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.