MODEL VERDICT
Edison International (EIX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $69.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $68.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $70.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $71.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $75.72 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $271.43 | +288.4% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $135.92 | +94.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $117.07 | +67.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $118.03 | +68.9% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $275.97 | +294.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $1317.63 | +1785.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $145.56 | +108.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $271.43 | +288.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $236.89 | +239.0% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $54 | $54 | $81 | $108 | $135 |
| Conservative (28%) | $59 | $59 | $88 | $118 | $147 |
| Base Case (42.3%) | $66 | $66 | $99 | $131 | $164 |
| Bull Case (57%) | $73 | $73 | $109 | $145 | $181 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.42 | 24.12 | 5.20 | 39.76 | 11.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.33 | 22.98 | 11.98 | 32.39 | 7.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.25 | 12.66 | 6.64 | 14.69 | 2.77 |
| P/FFO | 6.86 | 7.05 | 3.15 | 8.12 | 1.74 |
| P/TBV | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.75 | 0.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.49 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.75 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.66 | 1.73 | 1.20 | 2.08 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates EIX's fair value at $236.89 vs the current price of $69.88, implying +239.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $236.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $160.78 (P10) to $205.90 (P90), with a median of $182.94.
EIX's current P/E of 6.1x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -74.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
36 analysts cover EIX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $74.67 (range: $62.00 — $82.00), implying +6.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (13), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 18.9% is 10.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.9%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$138. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EIX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9770.0% to approximately $138. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.