MODEL VERDICT
Envela Corporation (ELA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $17.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $18.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $17.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $17.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $17.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $7.11 | -60.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $11.28 | -36.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $12.33 | -30.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $1.10 | -93.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $12.38 | -30.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $1.22 | -93.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $10.51 | -41.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $28.27 | +58.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $22.09 | +24.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $12.59 | -29.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $1.04 | -94.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.68 | -45.6% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (12%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (18.5%) | $17 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.82 | 18.00 | 9.07 | 27.62 | 6.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.69 | 13.90 | 9.86 | 21.30 | 4.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.76 | 13.03 | 9.52 | 20.10 | 4.09 |
| P/FCF | 93.23 | 36.18 | 14.54 | 251.84 | 100.83 |
| P/FFO | 15.43 | 15.33 | 8.27 | 22.62 | 5.81 |
| P/TBV | 5.64 | 5.65 | 3.25 | 10.60 | 2.41 |
| P/AFFO | 32.62 | 20.80 | 8.40 | 112.25 | 36.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.27 | 3.57 | 2.70 | 7.97 | 1.81 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.92 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 1.44 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELA's fair value at $9.68 vs the current price of $17.80, implying -45.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.05 (P10) to $13.08 (P90), with a median of $11.51.
ELA's current P/E of 31.8x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +44.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover ELA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $12.00 — $12.00), implying -32.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ELA trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ELA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4170.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.