MODEL VERDICT
Elemental Royalty Corporation Common Stock (ELE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $18.86 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $16.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $18.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $20.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $19.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $13.68 | -27.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $34.15 | +81.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $12.45 | -34.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $1.23 | -93.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $12.31 | -34.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $39.64 | +110.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $40.12 | +112.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $19.03 | +0.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.58 | +9.1% | 100% | 56 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELE's fair value at $20.58 vs the current price of $18.86, implying +9.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.17 (P10) to $26.39 (P90), with a median of $21.78.
ELE's current P/E of -1109.4x compares to the industry median of 37.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -3045.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for ELE.
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ELE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.