MODEL VERDICT
EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $903.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $869.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $806.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $803.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $802.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $573.84 | -36.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $778.47 | -13.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $1025.55 | +13.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $707.24 | -21.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $907.87 | +0.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $748.07 | -17.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $5679.73 | +528.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $602.68 | -33.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $558.92 | -38.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $1025.39 | +13.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $703.91 | -22.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $808.50 | -10.5% | 100% | 77 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (26%) | $920 | $1026 | $1132 | $1238 | $1344 |
| Conservative (41%) | $1036 | $1156 | $1275 | $1395 | $1515 |
| Base Case (63.7%) | $1200 | $1338 | $1477 | $1615 | $1754 |
| Bull Case (86%) | $1363 | $1521 | $1678 | $1835 | $1992 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.20 | 18.29 | 15.01 | 38.11 | 7.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.60 | 13.12 | 10.95 | 17.99 | 2.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.71 | 11.14 | 9.20 | 14.80 | 2.12 |
| P/FCF | 16.46 | 15.94 | 6.68 | 24.50 | 6.08 |
| P/FFO | 16.08 | 14.43 | 11.69 | 21.15 | 3.51 |
| P/TBV | 13.95 | 12.75 | 8.19 | 23.89 | 5.46 |
| P/AFFO | 18.08 | 15.95 | 13.23 | 26.45 | 4.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.36 | 3.76 | 2.37 | 7.50 | 2.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.70 | 0.53 | 1.62 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EME's fair value at $808.50 vs the current price of $903.50, implying -10.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $808.50 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $583.05 (P10) to $764.99 (P90), with a median of $672.27.
EME's current P/E of 32.1x compares to the industry median of 36.4x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -11.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
12 analysts cover EME with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $931.50 (range: $918.00 — $945.00), implying +3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 7.5% is 3.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (6.5%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$521. (2) Multiple compression: EME trades at the 2310th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.2×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EME's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4240.0% to approximately $521. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.