MODEL VERDICT
Enel Chile S.A. (ENIC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $5.34 | +19.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $4.82 | +7.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $7.98 | +78.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $2.31 | -48.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $9.36 | +109.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $10.03 | +124.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $3.48 | -22.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $5.34 | +19.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $175.63 | +3829.0% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.37 | 4.01 | 0.02 | 25.86 | 9.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 4526.73 | 754.57 | 5.05 | 22588.05 | 8931.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1802.50 | 12.96 | 3.09 | 7225.71 | 2708.97 |
| P/FCF | 4.49 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 14.38 | 6.51 |
| P/FFO | 2.80 | 1.78 | 0.01 | 7.23 | 3.09 |
| P/TBV | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.28 | 0.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 0.38 |
| Div Yield | 48.49 | 58.11 | 0.05 | 92.29 | 43.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 1.24 | 0.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates ENIC's fair value at $175.63 vs the current price of $4.47, implying +3829.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $175.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.92 (P10) to $557.16 (P90), with a median of $252.08.
ENIC's current P/E of 11.5x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -16.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.4x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
3 analysts cover ENIC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.45 (range: $4.30 — $4.60), implying -0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ENIC trades at the 3920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ENIC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4880.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.