MODEL VERDICT
Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd (ENLT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $91.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $87.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $81.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $82.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $74.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $93.52 | +2.4% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $9.39 | -89.7% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $110.40 | +20.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $90.83 | -0.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.15 | -32.0% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 67× | 73× | 79× (Current) | 85× | 91× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $238 | $260 | $281 | $302 | $324 |
| Conservative (7%) | $244 | $266 | $288 | $310 | $331 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $252 | $275 | $297 | $320 | $342 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $260 | $283 | $307 | $330 | $353 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.94 | 13.27 | 9.25 | 13.29 | 2.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.69 | 25.72 | 24.91 | 26.43 | 0.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.81 | 17.08 | 15.51 | 20.84 | 2.74 |
| P/FFO | 12.49 | 13.89 | 6.23 | 17.34 | 5.69 |
| P/TBV | 1.69 | 1.85 | 1.14 | 2.07 | 0.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.36 | 1.48 | 0.97 | 1.65 | 0.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.00 | 5.33 | 3.59 | 9.08 | 2.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates ENLT's fair value at $62.15 vs the current price of $91.35, implying -32.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.76 (P10) to $43.33 (P90), with a median of $37.79.
ENLT's current P/E of 78.6x compares to the industry median of 27.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +187.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.9x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover ENLT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $62.50 (range: $37.00 — $83.00), implying -31.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ENLT trades at the 8890th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ENLT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (30.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3650.0% to approximately $58. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.