MODEL VERDICT
Enerpac Tool Group Corp. (EPAC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $34.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $35.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $35.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $35.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $36.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $37.71 | +7.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $37.43 | +7.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $55.54 | +59.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $40.27 | +15.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $59.96 | +71.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $43.93 | +25.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $523.44 | +1398.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $33.92 | -2.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $29.81 | -14.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $56.57 | +61.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $40.27 | +15.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.78 | +142.7% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (68%) | $48 | $54 | $60 | $66 | $71 |
| Conservative (110%) | $61 | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 |
| Base Case (169.3%) | $78 | $87 | $96 | $105 | $114 |
| Bull Case (229%) | $95 | $106 | $117 | $128 | $140 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 328.75 | 37.91 | 22.49 | 1884.17 | 688.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 34.11 | 26.65 | 16.53 | 58.22 | 17.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.98 | 18.53 | 13.93 | 33.75 | 7.94 |
| P/FCF | 33.99 | 30.65 | 22.66 | 58.76 | 12.91 |
| P/FFO | 34.58 | 28.24 | 19.22 | 56.28 | 15.58 |
| P/TBV | 50.47 | 50.63 | 15.30 | 86.85 | 32.73 |
| P/AFFO | 187.46 | 33.21 | 23.39 | 1041.03 | 377.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.69 | 4.80 | 2.97 | 5.75 | 0.98 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.91 | 2.76 | 2.32 | 3.82 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EPAC's fair value at $84.78 vs the current price of $34.94, implying +142.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.58 (P10) to $187.15 (P90), with a median of $80.94.
EPAC's current P/E of 20.6x compares to the industry median of 32.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -37.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 328.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover EPAC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $23.00 — $51.00), implying +5.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (15), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 14.6% is 9.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (11.7%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$447. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EPAC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 117850.0% to approximately $447. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.