MODEL VERDICT
EPAM Systems, Inc. (EPAM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $112.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $118.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $131.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $128.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $122.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $160.93 | +43.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $118.35 | +5.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $116.04 | +3.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $105.49 | -6.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $113.64 | +1.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $110.20 | -1.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 10 industry peers | $117.78 | +4.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $125.50 | +11.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $107.54 | -4.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $116.04 | +3.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $105.49 | -6.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $194.73 | +73.4% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $82 | $98 | $115 | $131 | $148 |
| Conservative (8%) | $84 | $101 | $118 | $135 | $152 |
| Base Case (11.6%) | $87 | $105 | $122 | $140 | $157 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $91 | $109 | $127 | $145 | $163 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.34 | 46.23 | 27.36 | 82.02 | 19.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.53 | 31.25 | 22.83 | 71.52 | 17.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.35 | 25.11 | 18.51 | 55.67 | 13.00 |
| P/FCF | 47.12 | 44.04 | 25.72 | 85.68 | 22.15 |
| P/FFO | 36.62 | 33.78 | 23.31 | 62.99 | 13.89 |
| P/TBV | 9.97 | 8.09 | 6.19 | 21.18 | 5.37 |
| P/AFFO | 43.37 | 40.58 | 24.67 | 76.62 | 17.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.79 | 6.46 | 3.73 | 15.82 | 4.17 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.42 | 4.02 | 2.87 | 10.51 | 2.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EPAM's fair value at $194.73 vs the current price of $112.33, implying +73.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $194.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $172.77 (P10) to $237.40 (P90), with a median of $204.48.
EPAM's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -3.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.3x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
37 analysts cover EPAM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $197.00 (range: $146.00 — $247.00), implying +75.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EPAM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 42730.0% to approximately $592. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.