MODEL VERDICT
Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $22.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $22.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $21.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $20.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $18.20 | Pending | +8.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $37.73 | +65.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $19.51 | -14.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $13.40 | -41.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $18.41 | -19.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $11.45 | -49.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $79.41 | +249.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $91.19 | +301.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $13.39 | -41.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $18.38 | -19.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.24 | -6.6% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 | $26 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $27 |
| Base Case (-15.6%) | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-21%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.66 | 21.14 | 16.57 | 32.17 | 6.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.01 | 16.36 | 13.83 | 21.99 | 3.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.30 | 10.28 | 7.59 | 12.26 | 1.48 |
| P/FCF | 17.63 | 12.63 | 9.65 | 45.30 | 12.66 |
| P/FFO | 10.10 | 10.06 | 7.11 | 12.31 | 2.02 |
| P/AFFO | 16.14 | 16.28 | 12.12 | 21.82 | 3.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.20 | 1.27 | 0.52 | 1.59 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.36 | 1.21 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates EPC's fair value at $21.24 vs the current price of $22.74, implying -6.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.41 (P10) to $26.63 (P90), with a median of $22.47.
EPC's current P/E of 42.9x compares to the industry median of 25.3x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +69.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover EPC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $22.67 (range: $21.00 — $24.00), implying -0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EPC trades at the 7860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EPC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.