MODEL VERDICT
The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $167.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $160.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $160.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $159.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $141.87 | Below threshold | +10.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $136.51 | -18.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $110.98 | -33.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $173.00 | +3.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $121.10 | -27.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $150.01 | -10.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $127.26 | -23.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $46.37 | -72.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $65.82 | -60.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $68.16 | -59.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $172.60 | +3.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $120.95 | -27.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $153.39 | -8.2% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $146 | $160 | $173 | $186 | $200 |
| Conservative (5%) | $150 | $164 | $178 | $191 | $205 |
| Base Case (5.6%) | $151 | $165 | $179 | $192 | $206 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $154 | $168 | $182 | $196 | $210 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.13 | 27.85 | 22.01 | 87.34 | 23.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.20 | 22.26 | 17.92 | 52.15 | 11.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.68 | 20.44 | 16.21 | 41.28 | 8.38 |
| P/FCF | 26.34 | 26.40 | 25.05 | 28.36 | 1.23 |
| P/FFO | 25.69 | 22.78 | 18.69 | 47.19 | 9.68 |
| P/AFFO | 36.61 | 28.18 | 23.37 | 94.01 | 25.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.78 | 7.79 | 6.67 | 9.12 | 0.87 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.82 | 4.80 | 4.17 | 5.59 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PG's fair value at $153.39 vs the current price of $167.18, implying -8.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $153.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $128.04 (P10) to $170.17 (P90), with a median of $148.51.
PG's current P/E of 25.7x compares to the industry median of 26.6x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -3.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
51 analysts cover PG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $167.67 (range: $150.00 — $179.00), implying +0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (29), Hold (21), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1680.0% to approximately $195. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.