MODEL VERDICT
Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $87.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $84.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $85.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $83.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $84.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $49.61 | -43.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $50.20 | -42.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $57.52 | -34.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $64.10 | -26.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $85.67 | -1.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $90.88 | +4.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $47.92 | -45.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $46.04 | -47.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $57.50 | -34.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $64.10 | -26.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.93 | -21.0% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $72 | $80 | $89 | $97 | $105 |
| Conservative (5%) | $75 | $83 | $91 | $99 | $108 |
| Base Case (-3.5%) | $69 | $76 | $84 | $91 | $99 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $68 | $75 | $83 | $90 | $98 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.63 | 28.78 | 25.03 | 36.99 | 4.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.76 | 21.23 | 19.15 | 26.38 | 2.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.60 | 16.48 | 14.22 | 18.16 | 1.50 |
| P/FCF | 23.66 | 21.74 | 17.64 | 35.53 | 5.81 |
| P/FFO | 23.70 | 23.05 | 20.54 | 28.36 | 2.80 |
| P/AFFO | 29.79 | 29.16 | 23.24 | 40.45 | 5.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 101.66 | 82.00 | 66.74 | 175.60 | 41.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.76 | 3.72 | 3.14 | 4.46 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CL's fair value at $68.93 vs the current price of $87.26, implying -21.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.21 (P10) to $73.91 (P90), with a median of $67.50.
CL's current P/E of 33.2x compares to the industry median of 21.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +51.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
45 analysts cover CL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $93.70 (range: $79.00 — $102.00), implying +7.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (24), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CL trades at the 7690th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1040.0% to approximately $96. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.