MODEL VERDICT
Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $99.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $95.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $96.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $93.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $81.48 | Below threshold | +15.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $75.77 | -23.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $55.28 | -44.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $66.47 | -33.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $95.86 | -3.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $95.68 | -3.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $103.18 | +4.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $46.99 | -52.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $49.31 | -50.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $66.46 | -33.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $95.65 | -3.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $82.87 | -16.4% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $86 | $94 | $102 | $110 | $118 |
| Conservative (5%) | $88 | $97 | $105 | $113 | $122 |
| Base Case (-3.5%) | $81 | $89 | $96 | $104 | $112 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $80 | $88 | $95 | $103 | $110 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.63 | 28.78 | 25.03 | 36.99 | 4.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.76 | 21.23 | 19.15 | 26.38 | 2.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.60 | 16.48 | 14.22 | 18.16 | 1.50 |
| P/FCF | 23.66 | 21.74 | 17.64 | 35.53 | 5.81 |
| P/FFO | 23.70 | 23.05 | 20.54 | 28.36 | 2.80 |
| P/AFFO | 29.79 | 29.16 | 23.24 | 40.45 | 5.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 101.66 | 82.00 | 66.74 | 175.60 | 41.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.76 | 3.72 | 3.14 | 4.46 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CL's fair value at $82.87 vs the current price of $99.14, implying -16.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $82.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $71.55 (P10) to $86.79 (P90), with a median of $79.12.
CL's current P/E of 37.7x compares to the industry median of 25.3x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +49.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
43 analysts cover CL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $92.45 (range: $85.00 — $100.00), implying -6.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (25), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CL trades at the 7140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (29.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 280.0% to approximately $96. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.