MODEL VERDICT
Unilever PLC (UL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $73.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $73.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $74.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $71.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $64.20 | Below threshold | +11.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $73.75 | +0.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $104.99 | +42.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $57.88 | -21.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 17 industry peers | $66.58 | -9.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 17 industry peers | $62.47 | -15.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 17 industry peers | $67.42 | -8.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $4.46 | -94.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $95.51 | +29.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $93.97 | +27.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $57.87 | -21.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 17 industry peers | $66.43 | -9.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $78.94 | +7.0% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $54 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $72 |
| Conservative (5%) | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 | $75 |
| Base Case (1.4%) | $53 | $58 | $63 | $67 | $72 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $54 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $72 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.99 | 23.19 | 15.01 | 28.47 | 5.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.71 | 17.29 | 14.55 | 19.23 | 1.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.63 | 14.94 | 11.09 | 17.44 | 2.19 |
| P/FCF | 20.19 | 20.45 | 15.49 | 23.51 | 2.74 |
| P/FFO | 17.32 | 18.01 | 12.38 | 20.89 | 2.99 |
| P/AFFO | 20.78 | 20.99 | 14.01 | 24.67 | 3.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.07 | 7.11 | 5.91 | 11.45 | 2.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.57 | 2.68 | 2.06 | 3.13 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UL's fair value at $78.94 vs the current price of $73.75, implying +7.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $78.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.91 (P10) to $84.88 (P90), with a median of $76.85.
UL's current P/E of 27.3x compares to the industry median of 25.3x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +8.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
35 analysts cover UL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $65.55 (range: $60.10 — $71.00), implying -11.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (17), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UL trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1850.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.