MODEL VERDICT
Unilever PLC (UL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $59.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $58.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $58.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $58.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $58.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $38.05 | -36.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $98.42 | +64.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $44.88 | -24.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $59.30 | -0.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $55.98 | -6.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $58.21 | -2.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $10.10 | -83.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $80.94 | +35.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $67.11 | +12.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $43.80 | -26.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $59.24 | -0.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.30 | +10.9% | 100% | 88 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 | $61 |
| Conservative (5%) | $43 | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 |
| Base Case (1.4%) | $42 | $46 | $51 | $56 | $60 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $42 | $47 | $51 | $56 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.99 | 23.19 | 15.01 | 28.47 | 5.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.71 | 17.29 | 14.55 | 19.23 | 1.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.63 | 14.94 | 11.09 | 17.44 | 2.19 |
| P/FCF | 20.19 | 20.45 | 15.49 | 23.51 | 2.74 |
| P/FFO | 17.32 | 18.01 | 12.38 | 20.89 | 2.99 |
| P/AFFO | 20.78 | 20.99 | 14.01 | 24.67 | 3.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.07 | 7.11 | 5.91 | 11.45 | 2.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.57 | 2.68 | 2.06 | 3.13 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UL's fair value at $66.30 vs the current price of $59.76, implying +10.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.71 (P10) to $72.09 (P90), with a median of $64.74.
UL's current P/E of 22.2x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +13.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
35 analysts cover UL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $65.55 (range: $60.10 — $71.00), implying +9.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (17), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UL trades at the 3850th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 50.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.