MODEL VERDICT
EPR Properties (EPR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $55.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $55.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $56.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $56.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $53.44 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $63.32 | +14.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $88.07 | +59.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $2.28 | -95.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $55.01 | -0.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $51.38 | -7.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $34.65 | -37.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $40.62 | -26.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $21.41 | -61.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.01 | +17.6% | 100% | 79 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $44 | $51 | $58 | $65 | $72 |
| Conservative (7%) | $45 | $52 | $59 | $66 | $73 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $47 | $54 | $61 | $69 | $76 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $48 | $56 | $63 | $71 | $78 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.12 | 26.13 | 15.21 | 47.49 | 11.79 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.86 | 24.86 | 19.12 | 137.49 | 46.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.30 | 13.35 | 6.39 | 20.13 | 4.02 |
| P/FCF | 399.29 | 8.82 | 6.61 | 2344.95 | 953.19 |
| P/FFO | 18.32 | 10.83 | 8.33 | 64.78 | 20.56 |
| P/TBV | 1.42 | 1.47 | 0.95 | 1.83 | 0.30 |
| P/AFFO | 57.73 | 23.80 | 8.67 | 140.71 | 72.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.40 | 1.45 | 0.94 | 1.80 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.01 | 5.56 | 4.64 | 8.32 | 1.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates EPR's fair value at $65.01 vs the current price of $55.28, implying +17.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.49 (P10) to $89.89 (P90), with a median of $63.62.
EPR's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 15.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +7.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.1x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
21 analysts cover EPR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $59.13 (range: $54.00 — $65.50), implying +7.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 38.3% is 22.9 percentage points above the 6-year average (15.3%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$37. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EPR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (15.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3320.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.