MODEL VERDICT
Equinix, Inc. (EQIX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $1085.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $1108.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $1088.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $1052.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $1030.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $706.51 | -34.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $666.33 | -38.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $684.78 | -36.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 3 industry peers | $1041.62 | -4.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $578.05 | -46.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $729.33 | -32.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $958.57 | -11.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $725.02 | -33.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $868.18 | -20.0% | 100% | 83 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 67× | 73× | 79× (Current) | 85× | 91× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $1021 | $1113 | $1204 | $1295 | $1387 |
| Conservative (18%) | $1083 | $1180 | $1277 | $1374 | $1471 |
| Base Case (26.9%) | $1170 | $1275 | $1379 | $1484 | $1589 |
| Bull Case (36%) | $1257 | $1369 | $1482 | $1594 | $1707 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 107.34 | 97.45 | 55.68 | 170.86 | 41.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 67.67 | 63.05 | 47.94 | 95.16 | 16.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.19 | 27.70 | 24.57 | 32.53 | 3.41 |
| P/FCF | 766.58 | 333.78 | 87.79 | 2310.98 | 1044.31 |
| P/FFO | 29.11 | 27.58 | 22.01 | 35.46 | 5.22 |
| P/TBV | 17.50 | 15.21 | 10.93 | 25.27 | 5.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.97 | 5.94 | 5.23 | 7.03 | 0.68 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.56 | 9.25 | 8.12 | 11.52 | 1.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates EQIX's fair value at $868.18 vs the current price of $1085.03, implying -20.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $868.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $782.08 (P10) to $939.18 (P90), with a median of $858.86.
EQIX's current P/E of 78.9x compares to the industry median of 42.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +87.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 107.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover EQIX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1117.40 (range: $894.00 — $1250.00), implying +3.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (37), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.0% is 5.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (9.8%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$958. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EQIX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1170.0% to approximately $958. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.