MODEL VERDICT
EQT Corporation (EQT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $61.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $60.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $58.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $55.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $51.09 | Below threshold | +9.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $63.93 | +4.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $34.55 | -43.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $52.97 | -13.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $40.68 | -33.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $48.46 | -21.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $37.29 | -39.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $21.51 | -65.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $24.72 | -59.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $52.94 | -13.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $42.49 | -30.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.99 | -10.5% | 100% | 70 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $47 | $55 | $63 | $71 | $79 |
| Conservative (7%) | $49 | $57 | $65 | $73 | $81 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $50 | $59 | $67 | $75 | $84 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $52 | $60 | $69 | $78 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.87 | 11.65 | 7.72 | 112.46 | 51.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.65 | 9.36 | 6.97 | 48.63 | 23.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.89 | 12.28 | 4.11 | 36.16 | 11.09 |
| P/FCF | 15.21 | 11.55 | 6.66 | 45.01 | 13.41 |
| P/FFO | 7.53 | 6.81 | 4.00 | 12.45 | 3.08 |
| P/TBV | 0.88 | 1.08 | 0.28 | 1.31 | 0.43 |
| P/AFFO | 53.89 | 11.73 | 6.75 | 185.34 | 87.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.85 | 1.06 | 0.28 | 1.23 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.29 | 1.25 | 0.73 | 4.94 | 1.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates EQT's fair value at $54.99 vs the current price of $61.42, implying -10.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.99 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.64 (P10) to $89.39 (P90), with a median of $66.43.
EQT's current P/E of 16.2x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +16.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.9x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
44 analysts cover EQT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.11 (range: $23.00 — $55.00), implying -33.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EQT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.