MODEL VERDICT
EQT Corporation (EQT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $58.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $58.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $58.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $56.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $58.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $48.21 | -17.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $67.03 | +14.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $52.95 | -9.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $47.89 | -18.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $50.81 | -13.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $53.10 | -9.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $40.43 | -31.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $39.11 | -33.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $52.88 | -9.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $47.60 | -18.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.67 | +6.8% | 100% | 70 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $48 | $55 | $62 | $69 | $76 |
| Conservative (7%) | $49 | $56 | $63 | $71 | $78 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $51 | $58 | $66 | $73 | $80 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $53 | $60 | $68 | $75 | $83 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.40 | 12.70 | 7.72 | 112.46 | 50.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.39 | 10.97 | 6.97 | 48.63 | 19.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.97 | 12.28 | 4.11 | 36.16 | 11.03 |
| P/FCF | 15.24 | 11.61 | 6.66 | 45.01 | 13.40 |
| P/FFO | 7.61 | 7.22 | 4.00 | 12.45 | 3.07 |
| P/TBV | 0.88 | 1.08 | 0.28 | 1.33 | 0.43 |
| P/AFFO | 54.34 | 12.63 | 6.75 | 185.34 | 87.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.85 | 1.06 | 0.28 | 1.23 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.27 | 1.25 | 0.73 | 4.94 | 1.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EQT's fair value at $62.67 vs the current price of $58.66, implying +6.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.72 (P10) to $92.67 (P90), with a median of $70.49.
EQT's current P/E of 17.7x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +10.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.4x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
45 analysts cover EQT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.11 (range: $23.00 — $55.00), implying -29.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (15), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 33.4% is 43.3 percentage points above the 4-year average (3.4%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$12. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EQT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (3.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7890.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.