MODEL VERDICT
Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $13.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $14.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $15.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $15.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $15.08 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $12.04 | -14.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $15.99 | +14.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $12.46 | -11.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $3.88 | -72.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $22.47 | +60.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $26.37 | +88.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $12.45 | -11.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.75 | +5.4% | 100% | 61 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.10 | 30.47 | 4.05 | 103.40 | 46.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 62.61 | 29.80 | 4.37 | 243.33 | 101.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.45 | 7.96 | 7.31 | 11.23 | 1.45 |
| P/FFO | 13.34 | 9.18 | 3.00 | 41.52 | 14.39 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 0.85 | 0.42 | 2.14 | 0.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02 | 0.81 | 0.42 | 2.14 | 0.61 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.33 | 2.08 | 1.05 | 11.42 | 3.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates EQX's fair value at $14.75 vs the current price of $13.99, implying +5.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.28 (P10) to $21.04 (P90), with a median of $16.18.
EQX's current P/E of 20.6x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +12.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.1x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
1 analysts cover EQX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EQX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (1.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3570.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.