MODEL VERDICT
Empire State Realty OP, L.P. (ESBA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $5.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $5.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $5.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $5.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $5.11 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 10 REIT peers | $6.76 | +24.0% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $8.66 | +58.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $2.04 | -62.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $6.17 | +13.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $8.53 | +56.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $14.70 | +169.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $9.52 | +74.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.51 | +56.1% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.68 | 36.31 | 29.68 | 49.71 | 7.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.86 | 30.48 | 22.73 | 70.50 | 17.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.75 | 15.50 | 10.97 | 16.96 | 2.15 |
| P/FCF | 40.99 | 20.76 | 10.50 | 116.93 | 42.58 |
| P/FFO | 12.95 | 12.49 | 6.84 | 17.91 | 3.88 |
| P/TBV | 2.97 | 2.85 | 2.04 | 3.76 | 0.59 |
| P/AFFO | 37.03 | 24.33 | 13.43 | 73.34 | 31.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.05 | 2.13 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.16 | 4.01 | 2.49 | 5.75 | 1.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates ESBA's fair value at $8.51 vs the current price of $5.45, implying +56.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.53 (P10) to $9.55 (P90), with a median of $8.54.
ESBA's current P/E of 19.5x compares to the industry median of 30.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -36.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.7x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for ESBA.
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ESBA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12920.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.