MODEL VERDICT
ESCO Technologies Inc. (ESE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $326.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $319.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $314.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $307.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $310.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $240.43 | -26.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $236.94 | -27.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $450.23 | +37.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $375.83 | +14.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $187.61 | -42.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $369.78 | +13.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $2011.83 | +515.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $212.43 | -35.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $213.54 | -34.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $450.22 | +37.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $375.79 | +14.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $379.65 | +16.1% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (27%) | $352 | $381 | $411 | $440 | $469 |
| Conservative (44%) | $399 | $432 | $465 | $498 | $531 |
| Base Case (67.3%) | $464 | $502 | $541 | $580 | $618 |
| Bull Case (91%) | $529 | $573 | $617 | $661 | $706 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.19 | 32.69 | 16.92 | 117.30 | 33.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.48 | 24.70 | 21.22 | 63.97 | 14.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.60 | 18.00 | 14.80 | 21.19 | 2.31 |
| P/FCF | 41.79 | 37.72 | 24.62 | 71.91 | 19.49 |
| P/FFO | 19.46 | 20.63 | 13.53 | 22.36 | 3.11 |
| P/TBV | 38.16 | 14.17 | 11.89 | 100.75 | 40.03 |
| P/AFFO | 27.51 | 27.97 | 14.98 | 33.78 | 6.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.71 | 2.79 | 2.18 | 3.29 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.39 | 3.30 | 2.66 | 4.62 | 0.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ESE's fair value at $379.65 vs the current price of $326.96, implying +16.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $379.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $244.12 (P10) to $360.21 (P90), with a median of $301.41.
ESE's current P/E of 28.3x compares to the industry median of 39.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -27.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
15 analysts cover ESE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $350.00 (range: $300.00 — $400.00), implying +7.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 25.3% is 14.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (11.2%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$216. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ESE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3390.0% to approximately $216. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.