MODEL VERDICT
Euroseas Ltd. (ESEA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $70.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $68.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $72.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $70.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $68.20 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $117.07 | +65.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $148.56 | +110.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $194.55 | +175.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $85.98 | +21.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $200.48 | +184.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $86.09 | +22.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $68.35 | -3.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $62.66 | -11.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $147.32 | +108.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $70.40 | -0.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $128.51 | +82.1% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $82 | $82 | $82 | $123 | $164 |
| Conservative (7%) | $84 | $84 | $84 | $126 | $168 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $87 | $87 | $87 | $130 | $174 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $90 | $90 | $90 | $134 | $179 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.10 | 1.82 | 1.01 | 3.34 | 0.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.74 | 3.23 | 1.70 | 56.23 | 19.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.89 | 2.64 | 1.51 | 15.92 | 5.09 |
| P/FCF | 8.72 | 7.92 | 4.61 | 14.43 | 4.43 |
| P/FFO | 2.13 | 2.29 | 0.86 | 3.79 | 1.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.34 | 1.85 | 0.49 |
| P/AFFO | 4.25 | 3.72 | 2.55 | 7.00 | 1.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.80 | 0.66 | 0.34 | 1.85 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.93 | 0.24 | 1.66 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ESEA's fair value at $128.51 vs the current price of $70.57, implying +82.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $128.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $95.93 (P10) to $149.82 (P90), with a median of $121.48.
ESEA's current P/E of 3.6x compares to the industry median of 9.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -63.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.1x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover ESEA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ESEA trades at the 800th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (2.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ESEA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (44.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5710.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.