Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)
Valuation Overview•Is Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 34/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
ESRT struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 17.7% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $199.2M | +0.7% | +2.8% | +4.7% | +1.6% | |
| EBITDA | $84.9M | — | -1.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $20.7M | -7.8% | +5.4% | — | +3.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.07 | -35.7% | -6.5% | — | -4.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$8.2M | -80.6% | -15.9% | +5.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 1.8% | 36.5% | 43.6% | 49.5% |
| Operating Margin | 17.7% | 19.4% | 17.9% | 20.1% |
| Net Margin | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% |
| FCF Margin | 6.6% | 24.1% | 20.7% | 11.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | — | $0.20 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $0.23 | — | ||
| Q4'25 | — | $0.23 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.22 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $0.19 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.05 | $0.24 | +380.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.05 | $0.26 | +420.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.24 | $0.24 | +0.0% |
Total return is -37.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -62.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -17.9% | -27.2% | — |
| 1Y | -37.2% | -62.2% | +1.6% |
| 3YCAGR | -6.6% | -26.7% | +6.0% |
| 5YCAGR | -13.1% | -26.5% | +5.8% |
| 10YCAGR | -8.8% | -22.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $6.57 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $6.00 (implying +14.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 34/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.6%.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. pays a 1.7% dividend yield, covered by a 50% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.9% buyback yield.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +0.7% 1Y revenue growth and -35.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +2.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 16 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +14.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. include: -42.1% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.69x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.