MODEL VERDICT
Energy Transfer LP (ET)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $19.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $19.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $18.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $18.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $19.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $29.05 | +45.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $34.73 | +74.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $29.74 | +49.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $31.28 | +56.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $94.71 | +375.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $95.55 | +379.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $29.58 | +48.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.71 | +49.0% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $24 | $27 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.44 | 10.93 | 4.35 | 15.30 | 3.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.45 | 11.71 | 8.26 | 13.69 | 1.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.14 | 8.27 | 5.77 | 10.31 | 1.45 |
| P/FCF | 8.01 | 7.15 | 2.70 | 15.42 | 4.20 |
| P/FFO | 5.00 | 5.27 | 2.43 | 6.71 | 1.38 |
| P/TBV | 1.25 | 1.27 | 0.69 | 1.83 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 15.62 | 8.45 | 3.49 | 48.00 | 18.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.94 | 0.98 | 0.52 | 1.44 | 0.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.33 | 0.81 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates ET's fair value at $29.71 vs the current price of $19.94, implying +49.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.32 (P10) to $35.31 (P90), with a median of $30.72.
ET's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -33.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover ET with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $19.00 — $19.00), implying -4.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (27), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ET trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ET's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (12.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5180.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.