MODEL VERDICT
EVgo, Inc. (EVGO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $2.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $2.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $2.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $2.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $1.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $18.83 | +767.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $15.19 | +600.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.81 | +997.4% | 100% | 33 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FFO | 30.11 | 34.02 | 20.41 | 37.57 | 8.37 |
| P/TBV | 1.04 | 1.17 | 0.70 | 1.40 | 0.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.09 | 1.00 | 0.59 | 8.23 | 3.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 16.20 | 3.82 | 1.01 | 56.42 | 22.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVGO's fair value at $23.81 vs the current price of $2.17, implying +997.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 33/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.27 (P10) to $33.70 (P90), with a median of $21.07.
EVGO's current P/E of -7.0x compares to the industry median of 20.2x (38 peers in the group). This represents a -134.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover EVGO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $5.25 (range: $3.50 — $7.00), implying +141.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 33/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (14), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EVGO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.