MODEL VERDICT
Evotec SE (EVO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $3.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $3.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $3.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $3.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $2.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $8.73 | +182.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $9.24 | +199.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.79 | +249.2% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 272.11 | 67.69 | 35.57 | 917.50 | 431.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 86.16 | 73.16 | 31.34 | 166.96 | 63.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.33 | 45.58 | 27.06 | 97.98 | 27.70 |
| P/FCF | 728.14 | 245.04 | 22.89 | 2399.60 | 1124.09 |
| P/FFO | 129.14 | 44.25 | 25.44 | 457.86 | 185.61 |
| P/TBV | 14.16 | 7.26 | 2.29 | 36.22 | 14.35 |
| P/AFFO | 50.01 | 47.34 | 33.54 | 69.16 | 17.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.84 | 5.74 | 1.55 | 7.19 | 2.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.35 | 7.83 | 1.85 | 12.79 | 3.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVO's fair value at $10.79 vs the current price of $3.09, implying +249.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.60 (P10) to $17.31 (P90), with a median of $10.40.
EVO's current P/E of -4.7x compares to the industry median of 24.0x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -119.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 272.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover EVO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying +126.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EVO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.