MODEL VERDICT
Evercore Inc. (EVR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $308.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $328.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $322.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $362.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $369.01 | Below threshold | -2.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $239.47 | -22.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $162.22 | -47.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $186.32 | -39.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 23 industry peers | $208.65 | -32.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $244.51 | -20.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $273.99 | -11.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $189.75 | -38.6% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $260 | $288 | $316 | $344 | $371 |
| Conservative (5%) | $267 | $296 | $324 | $353 | $381 |
| Base Case (5.7%) | $269 | $298 | $326 | $355 | $384 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $274 | $303 | $332 | $362 | $391 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.36 | 10.85 | 7.95 | 30.53 | 9.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.33 | 6.76 | 4.75 | 21.62 | 7.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.10 | 6.26 | 4.51 | 21.64 | 7.15 |
| P/FCF | 8.19 | 7.44 | 3.97 | 15.66 | 4.36 |
| P/FFO | 14.80 | 9.69 | 7.66 | 30.55 | 9.60 |
| P/TBV | 3.95 | 3.74 | 2.79 | 6.35 | 1.15 |
| P/AFFO | 16.36 | 12.31 | 7.94 | 33.19 | 10.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.60 | 3.21 | 2.59 | 5.94 | 1.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.18 | 1.78 | 1.56 | 3.85 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVR's fair value at $189.75 vs the current price of $308.84, implying -38.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $189.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $164.71 (P10) to $231.93 (P90), with a median of $196.18.
EVR's current P/E of 34.0x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +29.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.4x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
21 analysts cover EVR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $398.83 (range: $381.00 — $420.00), implying +29.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EVR trades at the 7780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EVR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4340.0% to approximately $175. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.