MODEL VERDICT
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (EW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $84.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $84.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $80.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $78.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $77.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $49.08 | -41.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $53.68 | -36.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $43.01 | -48.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $54.33 | -35.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $70.40 | -16.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $62.75 | -25.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $18.20 | -78.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $44.89 | -46.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $39.41 | -53.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $43.31 | -48.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $56.06 | -33.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.94 | -16.8% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 42× | 46× (Current) | 50× | 54× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $72 | $79 | $87 | $94 | $102 |
| Conservative (5%) | $73 | $81 | $88 | $96 | $104 |
| Base Case (7.1%) | $74 | $82 | $90 | $98 | $106 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $76 | $84 | $92 | $100 | $108 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.85 | 46.58 | 10.62 | 70.18 | 19.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.93 | 37.48 | 25.92 | 60.88 | 12.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.06 | 29.27 | 24.87 | 46.01 | 8.04 |
| P/FCF | 73.64 | 58.31 | 37.41 | 153.04 | 38.85 |
| P/FFO | 37.18 | 40.60 | 10.25 | 60.13 | 16.22 |
| P/TBV | 12.71 | 10.69 | 6.24 | 18.82 | 5.86 |
| P/AFFO | 50.46 | 51.49 | 10.96 | 104.53 | 29.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.96 | 8.02 | 4.41 | 14.01 | 3.88 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.64 | 9.27 | 8.16 | 15.63 | 2.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EW's fair value at $69.94 vs the current price of $84.01, implying -16.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.91 (P10) to $79.96 (P90), with a median of $70.23.
EW's current P/E of 45.9x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +95.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
48 analysts cover EW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $96.53 (range: $85.00 — $110.00), implying +14.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (32), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EW trades at the 7420th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (41.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (31.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6410.0% to approximately $138. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.