MODEL VERDICT
Exponent, Inc. (EXPO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $65.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $65.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $68.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $68.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $65.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $39.29 | -39.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $35.62 | -45.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $44.28 | -32.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $47.40 | -27.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $39.94 | -38.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $60.05 | -8.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $22.66 | -65.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $22.08 | -66.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $21.74 | -66.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $43.77 | -33.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $47.33 | -27.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.79 | -10.0% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $55 | $61 | $68 | $74 | $81 |
| Conservative (5%) | $57 | $63 | $70 | $76 | $83 |
| Base Case (6.0%) | $57 | $64 | $70 | $77 | $83 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $58 | $65 | $72 | $78 | $85 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.05 | 45.38 | 33.56 | 61.44 | 9.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.05 | 39.41 | 23.22 | 55.54 | 11.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.95 | 36.49 | 26.34 | 51.49 | 9.33 |
| P/FCF | 44.60 | 43.74 | 29.09 | 63.36 | 11.68 |
| P/FFO | 44.50 | 41.66 | 30.66 | 57.81 | 9.23 |
| P/TBV | 12.84 | 13.08 | 9.32 | 16.60 | 2.57 |
| P/AFFO | 50.19 | 53.21 | 33.36 | 61.72 | 9.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.54 | 12.77 | 9.12 | 16.15 | 2.50 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.60 | 8.91 | 6.12 | 13.35 | 2.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXPO's fair value at $58.79 vs the current price of $65.28, implying -10.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.67 (P10) to $64.81 (P90), with a median of $59.16.
EXPO's current P/E of 31.5x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +47.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover EXPO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $85.00 (range: $85.00 — $85.00), implying +30.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EXPO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9050.0% to approximately $124. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.