MODEL VERDICT
National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $23.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $23.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $25.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $25.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $25.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $11.57 | -50.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $20.51 | -12.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $9.25 | -60.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $19.67 | -16.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $3.92 | -83.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $16.61 | -29.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $31.78 | +35.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $29.91 | +27.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $8.99 | -61.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $18.67 | -20.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.15 | +6.8% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 54× | 59× | 64× (Current) | 69× | 74× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Base Case (-3.4%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $26 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $19 | $21 | $23 | $24 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 72.38 | 74.54 | 33.56 | 102.93 | 25.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 51.03 | 50.81 | 30.19 | 73.64 | 15.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.70 | 22.16 | 17.59 | 46.91 | 10.23 |
| P/FCF | 103.17 | 28.23 | 21.47 | 550.76 | 197.47 |
| P/FFO | 24.57 | 21.02 | 11.60 | 50.67 | 12.68 |
| P/AFFO | 76.56 | 73.47 | 34.29 | 141.53 | 42.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.05 | 3.41 | 1.00 | 4.98 | 1.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.44 | 1.54 | 0.45 | 2.22 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates EYE's fair value at $25.15 vs the current price of $23.54, implying +6.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.85 (P10) to $41.74 (P90), with a median of $24.81.
EYE's current P/E of 63.6x compares to the industry median of 25.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +154.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 72.4x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover EYE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.20 (range: $30.00 — $40.00), implying +49.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EYE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12760.0% to approximately $54. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.