MODEL VERDICT
Fate Therapeutics, Inc. (FATE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $0.13 | -88.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $0.53 | -52.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.54 | +37.2% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.89 | 4.49 | 0.59 | 19.49 | 6.57 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.89 | 4.49 | 0.59 | 19.49 | 6.57 |
| P/S Ratio | 92.05 | 99.27 | 5.79 | 238.32 | 87.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates FATE's fair value at $1.54 vs the current price of $1.12, implying +37.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.24 (P10) to $2.70 (P90), with a median of $1.33.
FATE's current P/E of -0.7x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -102.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover FATE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $39.50 (range: $3.00 — $145.00), implying +3426.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (13), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FATE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.