MODEL VERDICT
First BanCorp. (FBP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $24.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $23.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $23.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $22.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $22.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $28.54 | +17.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $18.76 | -22.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $21.97 | -9.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $32.57 | +34.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $28.54 | +17.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $25.22 | +3.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.78 | +1.9% | 100% | 90 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $17 | $22 | $27 | $32 | $37 |
| Conservative (24%) | $19 | $24 | $29 | $35 | $40 |
| Base Case (36.1%) | $20 | $26 | $32 | $38 | $44 |
| Bull Case (49%) | $22 | $29 | $35 | $42 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.72 | 10.27 | 8.00 | 20.04 | 4.09 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.67 | 7.29 | 2.47 | 12.89 | 3.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.99 | 6.85 | 2.27 | 10.52 | 2.77 |
| P/FCF | 7.57 | 7.68 | 5.81 | 8.56 | 0.92 |
| P/FFO | 10.43 | 9.33 | 7.26 | 15.65 | 3.02 |
| P/TBV | 1.57 | 1.73 | 0.91 | 2.02 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 11.39 | 9.69 | 7.73 | 17.89 | 3.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.69 | 0.88 | 1.95 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.78 | 2.61 | 2.56 | 3.30 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FBP's fair value at $24.78 vs the current price of $24.31, implying +1.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.89 (P10) to $26.36 (P90), with a median of $24.05.
FBP's current P/E of 11.3x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -14.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
16 analysts cover FBP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.50 (range: $25.00 — $26.00), implying +4.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FBP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 370.0% to approximately $23. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.