MODEL VERDICT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. (FBRT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $9.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $8.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $13.41 | +44.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 1 REIT peers | $43.19 | +364.9% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $16.30 | +75.5% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $14.72 | +58.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $10.63 | +14.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $9.83 | +5.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $9.20 | -1.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $12.63 | +36.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.63 | +100.5% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $8 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $13 |
| Base Case (-6.6%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Bull Case (-9%) | $6 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.49 | 15.29 | 9.51 | 15.67 | 3.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.08 | 32.03 | 11.93 | 71.94 | 25.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.26 | 30.38 | 12.69 | 42.59 | 12.26 |
| P/FCF | 6.61 | 5.63 | 0.43 | 17.93 | 6.73 |
| P/FFO | 11.22 | 9.41 | 6.40 | 19.28 | 5.34 |
| P/TBV | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.59 | 0.78 | 0.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.56 | 0.76 | 0.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.75 | 1.95 | 1.56 | 5.86 | 1.77 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates FBRT's fair value at $18.63 vs the current price of $9.29, implying +100.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.16 (P10) to $13.08 (P90), with a median of $10.88.
FBRT's current P/E of 14.5x compares to the industry median of 16.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -12.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.5x over 3 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
4 analysts cover FBRT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.33 (range: $15.00 — $16.00), implying +65.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FBRT trades at the 6000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FBRT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (19.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 580.0% to approximately $10. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.