MODEL VERDICT
FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $13.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $11.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $7.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $7.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $6.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $28.56 | +114.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $20.84 | +56.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $456.54 | +3330.1% | 100% | 43 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 73.06 | 37.62 | 0.26 | 322.88 | 113.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 67.05 | 30.59 | 0.26 | 292.36 | 102.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 328.38 | 163.28 | 1.19 | 1049.50 | 408.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates FCEL's fair value at $456.54 vs the current price of $13.31, implying +3330.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 43/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $456.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.33 (P10) to $1086.51 (P90), with a median of $423.86.
FCEL's current P/E of -1.8x compares to the industry median of 35.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -105.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover FCEL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $8.73 (range: $7.00 — $12.00), implying -34.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (13), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 43/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FCEL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.