Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
Valuation Overview•Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 67/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
FCX demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 27.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2B | +1.1% | +3.3% | +13.2% | +5.6% | |
| EBITDA | $2.7B | — | -3.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $881.0M | +17.0% | -14.0% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.61 | +16.9% | -14.0% | +30.0% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $522.0M | -52.6% | -12.6% | +1.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 27.8% | 28.9% | 31.7% | 24.9% |
| Operating Margin | 27.8% | 26.1% | 29.1% | 21.8% |
| Net Margin | 10.3% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 5.8% |
| FCF Margin | 23.6% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.47 | $0.57 | +22.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.29 | $0.47 | +64.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.42 | $0.50 | +18.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.45 | $0.54 | +20.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.24 | $0.24 | +1.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.36 | $0.31 | -13.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.36 | $0.38 | +6.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.38 | $0.46 | +21.1% |
Total return is +68.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +43.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +32.8% | +23.5% | — |
| 1Y | +68.2% | +43.2% | +1.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +21.4% | +2.1% | +4.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +15.4% | +2.9% | +8.2% |
| 10YCAGR | +20.1% | +6.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) valuation, health, and returns.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -37.5% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $42.89)
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $42.89 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $42.03 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $71.44 (implying +4.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 67/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.7 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.8%.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. pays a 0.9% dividend yield, covered by a 39% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.1% buyback yield.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +1.1% 1Y revenue growth and +16.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +3.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 41 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +4.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. include: -25.1% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.16x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.16x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.