Upside case
Bull case
$128+122.2%
FCX would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 26x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
24 bullish · 3 bearish · 41 covering FCX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
14
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$67
+16.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$15 – $128
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $82.9B
FCX price targets
Three scenarios for where FCX stock could go
Current
~$58
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $58
Bear
$15
Base
$98
Bull
$128
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$98+69.5%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$15-73.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push FCX down roughly 74% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
FCX · NYSEBasic MaterialsCopperDecember year-end
Freeport-McMoRan is a global mining company primarily focused on copper production, with significant operations in North and South America and Indonesia. It generates revenue primarily from copper sales (roughly 80% of revenue), along with gold, molybdenum, and oil & gas production. The company's key advantage is its ownership of massive, low-cost copper deposits — particularly the Grasberg mine in Indonesia — which provide long-term reserves and cost advantages.
Market Cap
$82.9B
Revenue TTM
$26.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.7B
Net Margin
10.3%
FCX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+18.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.54/$0.45
Revenue
$7.6B/$7.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.42
Revenue
$7.0B/$6.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.47/$0.29
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.57/$0.47
Revenue
$6.2B/$5.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.54/$0.45 | +20.1% | $7.6B/$7.2B | +5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$0.42 | +18.7% | $7.0B/$6.7B | +3.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.47/$0.29 | +64.8% | $5.6B/$5.3B | +6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.57/$0.47 | +22.2% | $6.2B/$5.7B | +8.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$27.8B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$30.4B
+9.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.22
+17.4% YoY
FY2
$2.58
+16.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.2B
FCF Margin: 23.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FCX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FCX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $25.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Copper Cathode
31.4%
-2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
36.3%
+15.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Copper Cathode is the largest disclosed segment at 31.4% of FY 2025 revenue, down 2.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 36.3%, up 15.7% YoY.
FCX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $43 — implies -23.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
23.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FCX
38.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+51% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
FCX
38.0x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
+71% premium
vs FCX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
38.0x
vs
5Y Average
25.3x
+50% premium
Forward PE
21.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+12%
Basic Materials
15.2x
+40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
38.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
+51%
Basic Materials
22.3x
+71%
5Y Avg
25.3x
+50%
PEG Ratio
1.27x
S&P 500
1.72x
-26%
Basic Materials
1.17x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-30%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-3%
5Y Avg
7.4x
+45%
Price/FCF
74.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+252%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+190%
5Y Avg
53.6x
+39%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+70%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+25%
Dividend Yield
1.04%
S&P 500
1.87%
-44%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-21%
5Y Avg
1.25%
-17%
| Metric | FCX | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg FCX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.3x | 19.1x+12% | 15.2x+40% | — |
| Trailing PE | 38.0x | 25.1x+51% | 22.3x+71% | 25.3x+50% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.27x | 1.72x-26% | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7x | 15.2x-30% | 11.0x | 7.4x+45% |
| Price/FCF | 74.3x | 21.1x+252% | 25.6x+190% | 53.6x+39% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 1.9x+70% | 2.6x+25% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.04% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 1.25% |
FCX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFCX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FCX generates $6.2B in free cash flow at a 23.6% margin — 12.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.89
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$6.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.3× FCF
~1.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.2%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$107M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFCX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Operational Disruptions at Grasberg
The fatal mud rush at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in September 2025 caused fatalities and a temporary shutdown. A phased restart is scheduled for 2026, with most output expected in the second half, creating uncertainty in quarterly earnings.
High Risk
Copper Price Volatility
A 10% swing in copper prices can drive a 20-30% change in FCX’s stock price. Volatility is driven by global supply concerns, EV and AI demand, and geopolitical events.
High Risk
High Debt Levels
Historically, FCX’s elevated debt burden has raised solvency concerns. While the Altman Z-Score currently indicates low bankruptcy risk, a sudden rise in debt or interest rates could strain cash flows.
Medium
Rising Unit Costs
Increasing unit costs, especially for copper, pressure margins when sales volumes weaken. Higher costs could erode profitability if not offset by higher prices.
Medium
Tailings Management Risks
Disposal of large tailings volumes, particularly in Indonesia, poses environmental and regulatory risks. Tailings failures at other mines have led to legal liability and investigations.
Medium
Environmental Regulation Changes
Amendments to Indonesian environmental laws could raise operating costs. Compliance with mine closure and reclamation regulations also requires financial assurance, adding regulatory burden.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FCX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of Wall Street analysts have a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating on FCX, with the consensus rating generally "Moderate Buy". Many analysts have raised their price targets, indicating increasing confidence in the stock's upside potential.
Earnings Growth
Analysts project substantial earnings growth for FCX in the coming year, with EPS expected to rise significantly. This growth is driven by operational recovery and anticipated increases in copper prices.
Copper Market Dynamics
A projected structural deficit in the global copper market through 2050, driven by declining ore grades, lack of new discoveries, and permitting delays, is expected to underpin higher copper prices. Demand is set to rise due to electrification, electric vehicles, and infrastructure projects.
Strategic Assets and Expansion
FCX holds significant copper and gold reserves, with the Grasberg mine remaining central to its outlook. The company is advancing expansion projects in North America (Lone Star and Bagdad) and evaluating a large-scale mill conversion in South America (El Abra) to increase copper output.
Operational Recovery and Resilience
Despite past incidents such as the Grasberg mine accident, FCX’s long‑term asset base remains intact. The company’s scale and Grasberg block‑cave conversion position it as a low‑cost, high‑volume copper leader, offering upside from operational recovery.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FCX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$57.70
52W Range Position
63%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.15
+64.2% from the low
52-Week High
$70.97
-18.7% from the high
1 Month
-5.49%
3 Month
-2.57%
YTD
+11.1%
1 Year
+54.5%
3Y CAGR
+16.5%
5Y CAGR
+6.8%
10Y CAGR
+17.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FCX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.3x
vs 12.4x median
+73% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +15.5% median
-66% below peer median
Net Margin
10.3%
vs 20.9% median
-51% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $82.9B | 21.3x | +5.3% | 10.3% | Buy | +16.1% |
SCC SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | $141.3B | 24.2x | +15.5% | 32.3% | Hold | -8.6% |
TEC TECK Teck Resources Limited | $27.8B | 12.4x | +9.2% | 14.9% | Buy | +11.6% |
AA AA Alcoa Corporation | $16.3B | 9.0x | +6.5% | 9.0% | Buy | +9.1% |
HBM HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. | $8.9B | 14.3x | +18.3% | 25.8% | Buy | -53.7% |
CMC CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | $427M | 5.9x | +30.6% | 20.9% | Buy | -22.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FCX Dividend and Capital Return
FCX returns 1.2% total yield, led by a 1.04% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
1.04%
Payout Ratio
39.2%
How FCX Splits Its Return
Div 1.04%
Dividend 1.04%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
64.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$107M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.7% |
| 2023 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.60 | +166.7% | 2.4% | 4.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsFCX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $67, implying +16.1% from the current price of $58. The bear case scenario is $15 and the bull case is $128.
02What is the FCX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FCX is $67 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $77 (+33.4% from today), and the low-end target is $47 (-18.5%). The base case model target is $98.
03Is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) stock overvalued in 2026?
FCX trades at 21.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FCX in 2026 are: (1) Operational Disruptions at Grasberg — The fatal mud rush at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in September 2025 caused fatalities and a temporary shutdown. (2) Copper Price Volatility — A 10% swing in copper prices can drive a 20-30% change in FCX’s stock price. (3) High Debt Levels — Historically, FCX’s elevated debt burden has raised solvency concerns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FCX will report consensus revenue of $27.8B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.22 (+17.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $30.4B in revenue.
06When does Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FCX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Freeport-McMoRan Inc. generate?
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) generated $6.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.6%. FCX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($107M TTM).