MODEL VERDICT
Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (FDP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $41.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $41.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $42.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $40.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $41.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $61.80 | +49.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $37.86 | -8.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $46.38 | +12.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $92.23 | +123.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $49.48 | +19.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $84.47 | +104.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $107.27 | +159.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $68.37 | +65.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $66.87 | +61.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $46.26 | +11.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $90.70 | +119.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.13 | +52.7% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $36 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
| Conservative (8%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $53 |
| Base Case (12.8%) | $38 | $42 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $40 | $44 | $49 | $53 | $57 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.04 | 17.69 | 11.22 | 25.53 | 5.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.44 | 20.95 | 10.09 | 36.92 | 9.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.43 | 8.94 | 7.35 | 12.32 | 1.97 |
| P/FCF | 34.48 | 36.17 | 9.46 | 91.65 | 29.06 |
| P/FFO | 9.59 | 7.96 | 6.57 | 17.16 | 3.67 |
| P/TBV | 1.02 | 1.01 | 0.85 | 1.39 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 28.75 | 17.04 | 8.77 | 80.22 | 27.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.94 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.40 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FDP's fair value at $63.13 vs the current price of $41.34, implying +52.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.18 (P10) to $74.48 (P90), with a median of $62.97.
FDP's current P/E of 22.0x compares to the industry median of 24.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -10.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.0x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
3 analysts cover FDP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FDP trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FDP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3410.0% to approximately $27. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.