MODEL VERDICT
Fidus Investment Corporation (FDUS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $19.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $18.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $18.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $18.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $17.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $20.29 | +5.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $18.75 | -2.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $18.75 | -2.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $3.10 | -83.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $20.29 | +5.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $19.31 | +0.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.57 | -8.5% | 100% | 90 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $15 | $19 | $24 | $28 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $16 | $20 | $24 | $29 |
| Base Case (10.2%) | $11 | $16 | $21 | $25 | $30 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $17 | $21 | $26 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.47 | 8.76 | 3.79 | 13.03 | 2.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.43 | 13.86 | 5.36 | 19.57 | 4.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.43 | 13.86 | 5.36 | 19.57 | 4.97 |
| P/FCF | 7.51 | 8.22 | 2.62 | 10.98 | 4.06 |
| P/FFO | 6.41 | 8.47 | 0.01 | 10.75 | 5.66 |
| P/TBV | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 1.04 | 0.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 1.04 | 0.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.20 | 5.42 | 3.00 | 6.50 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FDUS's fair value at $17.57 vs the current price of $19.20, implying -8.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.22 (P10) to $19.10 (P90), with a median of $17.61.
FDUS's current P/E of 9.2x compares to the industry median of 9.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -5.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
12 analysts cover FDUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FDUS trades at the 2680th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FDUS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (64.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 100.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.