MODEL VERDICT
FedEx Corporation (FDX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $393.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $387.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $392.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $364.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $374.08 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $670.81 | +70.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $596.25 | +51.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $699.74 | +77.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $304.60 | -22.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $657.89 | +67.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $192.03 | -51.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $1694.47 | +330.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $586.60 | +49.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $707.79 | +79.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $699.35 | +77.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $542.76 | +37.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $597.78 | +51.8% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $355 | $392 | $430 | $467 | $505 |
| Conservative (18%) | $377 | $417 | $457 | $497 | $536 |
| Base Case (28.0%) | $409 | $452 | $495 | $538 | $581 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $440 | $486 | $532 | $579 | $625 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.90 | 16.35 | 12.06 | 74.12 | 24.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 23.08 | 15.89 | 13.22 | 44.52 | 13.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.86 | 9.87 | 6.80 | 15.35 | 2.78 |
| P/FCF | 71.28 | 23.03 | 15.01 | 325.78 | 124.74 |
| P/FFO | 8.90 | 8.19 | 5.91 | 13.88 | 2.54 |
| P/TBV | 3.75 | 3.34 | 2.55 | 5.86 | 1.05 |
| P/AFFO | 27.26 | 22.07 | 16.32 | 44.60 | 11.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.60 | 2.50 | 1.85 | 3.72 | 0.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.74 | 0.80 | 0.49 | 0.98 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FDX's fair value at $597.78 vs the current price of $393.67, implying +51.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $597.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $453.64 (P10) to $704.99 (P90), with a median of $555.81.
FDX's current P/E of 23.4x compares to the industry median of 41.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -43.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
49 analysts cover FDX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $364.19 (range: $210.00 — $479.00), implying -7.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (19), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FDX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4950.0% to approximately $589. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.