MODEL VERDICT
FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $46.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $49.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $50.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $50.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $51.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $38.77 | -17.4% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $52.46 | +11.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $62.02 | +32.2% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $52.54 | +12.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $59.96 | +27.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $95.22 | +102.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $38.60 | -17.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.27 | +9.3% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $41 | $45 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
| Conservative (5%) | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $57 |
| Base Case (-2.4%) | $40 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $53 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $49 | $53 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.00 | 23.40 | 15.38 | 59.07 | 14.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.95 | 18.65 | 17.19 | 22.47 | 1.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.50 | 12.29 | 11.61 | 13.85 | 0.80 |
| P/FFO | 9.71 | 8.95 | 7.20 | 13.47 | 2.40 |
| P/TBV | 7.64 | 4.77 | 2.83 | 20.63 | 6.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.34 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 3.78 | 0.71 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.85 | 1.71 | 1.54 | 2.39 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates FE's fair value at $51.27 vs the current price of $46.92, implying +9.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.71 (P10) to $56.82 (P90), with a median of $51.71.
FE's current P/E of 26.7x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +21.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.0x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
27 analysts cover FE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $51.43 (range: $46.00 — $56.00), implying +9.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1740.0% to approximately $55. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.