MODEL VERDICT
FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $51.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $50.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $50.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $47.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $44.65 | Below threshold | +4.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $37.08 | -27.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $40.81 | -20.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $63.42 | +24.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $48.94 | -4.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 18 industry peers | $20.59 | -59.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $25.24 | -50.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $44.78 | -12.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $37.08 | -27.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.17 | -13.7% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $45 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $59 |
| Conservative (5%) | $46 | $50 | $54 | $57 | $61 |
| Base Case (-2.4%) | $43 | $46 | $50 | $53 | $57 |
| Bull Case (-3%) | $43 | $46 | $49 | $53 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.00 | 23.40 | 15.38 | 59.07 | 14.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.91 | 18.39 | 17.19 | 22.47 | 1.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.48 | 12.29 | 11.61 | 13.85 | 0.82 |
| P/FFO | 9.58 | 8.95 | 7.20 | 13.47 | 2.40 |
| P/TBV | 7.64 | 4.77 | 2.83 | 20.63 | 6.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.34 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 3.78 | 0.71 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.85 | 1.71 | 1.54 | 2.39 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates FE's fair value at $44.17 vs the current price of $51.16, implying -13.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.80 (P10) to $52.20 (P90), with a median of $44.79.
FE's current P/E of 29.1x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +38.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
27 analysts cover FE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $50.50 (range: $46.00 — $56.00), implying -1.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FE trades at the 8420th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1240.0% to approximately $45. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.