MODEL VERDICT
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Inc. (FENC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 69 analyst estimates | $13.12 | +66.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 43 industry peers | $19.97 | +154.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $2.67 | -66.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 46 industry peers | $22.17 | +182.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $13.07 | +66.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $12.03 | +53.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 46 industry peers | $21.32 | +171.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.59 | +238.2% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 7.47 | 6.66 | 5.69 | 10.87 | 2.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.47 | 6.66 | 5.69 | 10.87 | 2.36 |
| P/S Ratio | 306.89 | 92.57 | 3.63 | 1038.79 | 493.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates FENC's fair value at $26.59 vs the current price of $7.86, implying +238.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.72 (P10) to $45.98 (P90), with a median of $24.28.
FENC's current P/E of -491.3x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -2193.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover FENC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $14.00 — $18.00), implying +103.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FENC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.