MODEL VERDICT
Ferguson plc (FERG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $264.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $263.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $260.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $257.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $256.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $292.19 | +10.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $259.23 | -1.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $290.48 | +9.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $203.85 | -22.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $257.18 | -2.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $191.51 | -27.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $470.98 | +78.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $291.00 | +10.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $307.06 | +16.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $289.99 | +9.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $203.72 | -22.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $263.93 | -0.1% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $239 | $259 | $279 | $299 | $319 |
| Conservative (11%) | $248 | $269 | $290 | $311 | $331 |
| Base Case (17.1%) | $262 | $284 | $306 | $327 | $349 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $275 | $298 | $321 | $344 | $367 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.86 | 21.17 | 13.10 | 27.95 | 5.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.28 | 16.84 | 11.40 | 21.73 | 3.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.05 | 14.96 | 10.30 | 18.95 | 2.97 |
| P/FCF | 26.01 | 24.36 | 17.53 | 35.34 | 6.23 |
| P/FFO | 18.02 | 18.10 | 11.47 | 22.78 | 3.89 |
| P/TBV | 14.75 | 15.15 | 9.35 | 19.87 | 3.29 |
| P/AFFO | 22.15 | 22.61 | 13.03 | 28.57 | 4.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.70 | 6.29 | 4.88 | 8.06 | 1.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.29 | 1.35 | 0.97 | 1.77 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FERG's fair value at $263.93 vs the current price of $264.27, implying -0.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $263.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $229.30 (P10) to $262.28 (P90), with a median of $245.68.
FERG's current P/E of 28.4x compares to the industry median of 31.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -9.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
14 analysts cover FERG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $271.00 (range: $220.00 — $300.00), implying +2.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FERG trades at the 2860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FERG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 230.0% to approximately $270. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.