MODEL VERDICT
First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $30.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $30.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $29.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $29.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $29.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $35.37 | +16.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $40.31 | +32.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $27.18 | -10.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $39.98 | +31.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $35.37 | +16.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $36.86 | +21.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.17 | +12.3% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $19 | $25 | $31 | $36 | $42 |
| Conservative (7%) | $20 | $26 | $31 | $37 | $43 |
| Base Case (10.8%) | $21 | $27 | $32 | $38 | $44 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $21 | $27 | $34 | $40 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.73 | 11.03 | 8.83 | 12.72 | 1.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.51 | 10.72 | 7.96 | 16.42 | 2.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.10 | 9.30 | 7.11 | 14.71 | 2.48 |
| P/FCF | 10.79 | 10.64 | 4.88 | 18.71 | 5.00 |
| P/FFO | 9.18 | 8.94 | 7.69 | 11.12 | 1.07 |
| P/TBV | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.34 | 2.42 | 0.35 |
| P/AFFO | 9.93 | 9.52 | 8.38 | 12.25 | 1.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.99 | 1.03 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.62 | 2.41 | 1.90 | 3.57 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates FFBC's fair value at $34.17 vs the current price of $30.41, implying +12.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.40 (P10) to $34.84 (P90), with a median of $33.06.
FFBC's current P/E of 11.4x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -14.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
19 analysts cover FFBC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $32.25 (range: $30.00 — $34.00), implying +6.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FFBC trades at the 2820th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FFBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1220.0% to approximately $34. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.