MODEL VERDICT
F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. (FG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $28.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $26.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $57.64 | +101.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $60.33 | +111.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $36.96 | +29.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $37.84 | +32.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $57.64 | +101.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $38.19 | +33.6% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $80.70 | +182.3% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.37 | +86.7% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $21 | $21 | $32 | $42 | $53 |
| Conservative (13%) | $22 | $22 | $33 | $44 | $55 |
| Base Case (20.4%) | $24 | $24 | $35 | $47 | $59 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $25 | $25 | $37 | $50 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 34.71 | 5.87 | 3.00 | 95.26 | 52.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.28 | 3.97 | 2.21 | 15.67 | 7.31 |
| P/FCF | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.73 | 0.98 | 0.13 |
| P/FFO | 7.67 | 4.49 | 2.40 | 16.11 | 7.39 |
| P/AFFO | 8.17 | 4.58 | 2.48 | 17.44 | 8.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.38 | 1.33 | 0.96 | 1.84 | 0.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.12 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.34 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates FG's fair value at $53.37 vs the current price of $28.59, implying +86.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.42 (P10) to $57.00 (P90), with a median of $51.16.
FG's current P/E of 5.9x compares to the industry median of 11.8x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -50.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover FG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $31.00 (range: $31.00 — $31.00), implying +8.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3130.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.