MODEL VERDICT
FibroGen, Inc. (FGEN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 172.09 | 178.77 | 142.08 | 188.74 | 20.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 172.09 | 178.77 | 142.08 | 188.74 | 20.99 |
| P/S Ratio | 255.25 | 266.32 | 44.72 | 472.54 | 183.06 |
Insufficient data to determine relative valuation for FGEN.
Fair value could not be computed for FGEN due to insufficient comparable data.
FGEN's current P/E of -15.6x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -172.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover FGEN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.00 (range: $28.00 — $28.00), implying +273.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FGEN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.