MODEL VERDICT
First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $35.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $34.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $34.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $34.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $34.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $39.64 | +11.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $43.06 | +21.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $35.46 | +0.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $63.48 | +79.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $39.64 | +11.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $28.84 | -18.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.97 | +18.4% | 100% | 68 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $30 | $36 | $42 | $48 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $31 | $37 | $43 | $49 |
| Base Case (3.0%) | $24 | $30 | $36 | $42 | $48 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $24 | $31 | $37 | $43 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates FIBK's fair value at $41.97 vs the current price of $35.45, implying +18.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.68 (P10) to $44.39 (P90), with a median of $41.38.
FIBK's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 13.5x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -10.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
15 analysts cover FIBK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $38.33 (range: $33.00 — $44.00), implying +8.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 28.6% is 6.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (22.6%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$28. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FIBK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2100.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.