MODEL VERDICT
FinWise Bancorp (FINW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $16.75 | -4.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $18.25 | +4.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $21.27 | +21.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $16.75 | -4.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $18.06 | +3.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.25 | -7.3% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $17 | $19 | $21 | $24 |
| Base Case (-1.4%) | $13 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $13 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.60 | 10.76 | 4.22 | 17.18 | 6.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.46 | 3.12 | 0.85 | 10.83 | 4.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.05 | 2.69 | 0.80 | 10.83 | 4.15 |
| P/FFO | 7.20 | 6.61 | 3.85 | 11.72 | 3.69 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.19 | 0.88 | 1.28 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 9.95 | 9.78 | 4.15 | 16.09 | 5.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.19 | 0.88 | 1.26 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.77 | 1.61 | 1.37 | 2.17 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates FINW's fair value at $16.25 vs the current price of $17.53, implying -7.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.03 (P10) to $18.55 (P90), with a median of $16.77.
FINW's current P/E of 15.5x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +4.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.6x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
2 analysts cover FINW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.50 (range: $18.00 — $21.00), implying +11.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FINW trades at the 5690th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for FINW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.