MODEL VERDICT
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $230.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $234.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $236.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $223.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $217.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $141.01 | -38.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $151.74 | -34.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $168.27 | -27.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $234.70 | +1.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $136.83 | -40.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $245.93 | +6.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $199.42 | -13.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $80.98 | -64.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $84.93 | -63.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $162.29 | -29.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $219.28 | -4.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $240.98 | +4.5% | 100% | 81 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $212 | $234 | $255 | $276 | $297 |
| Conservative (16%) | $224 | $246 | $269 | $291 | $314 |
| Base Case (24.0%) | $240 | $264 | $288 | $312 | $336 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $257 | $282 | $308 | $334 | $359 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.63 | 39.40 | 22.82 | 79.54 | 18.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.38 | 33.91 | 22.97 | 68.80 | 15.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.87 | 25.98 | 15.14 | 47.52 | 10.43 |
| P/FCF | 110.10 | 65.61 | 25.44 | 293.09 | 99.97 |
| P/FFO | 28.75 | 27.45 | 13.75 | 50.90 | 11.78 |
| P/TBV | 7.67 | 7.48 | 3.20 | 11.12 | 2.92 |
| P/AFFO | 142.46 | 104.04 | 27.85 | 404.86 | 136.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.67 | 7.48 | 3.20 | 11.12 | 2.92 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.31 | 3.33 | 1.49 | 5.00 | 1.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FIVE's fair value at $240.98 vs the current price of $230.52, implying +4.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $240.98 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $176.48 (P10) to $310.42 (P90), with a median of $236.82.
FIVE's current P/E of 35.7x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +37.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
50 analysts cover FIVE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $219.47 (range: $180.00 — $255.00), implying -4.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (20), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FIVE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6160.0% to approximately $373. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.