MODEL VERDICT
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $223.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $220.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $205.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $206.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $195.57 | Below threshold | +7.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $175.04 | -21.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $132.90 | -40.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $138.36 | -38.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $52.21 | -76.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $90.66 | -59.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $25.47 | -88.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $97.20 | -56.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $74.05 | -66.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $78.59 | -64.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $134.40 | -39.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $49.64 | -77.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $151.47 | -32.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $195 | $214 | $233 | $252 | $271 |
| Conservative (5%) | $198 | $218 | $237 | $257 | $276 |
| Base Case (8.1%) | $204 | $224 | $244 | $264 | $283 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $209 | $230 | $250 | $270 | $291 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.96 | 39.40 | 22.82 | 79.54 | 17.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.90 | 33.91 | 22.97 | 68.80 | 14.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.71 | 25.98 | 15.14 | 47.52 | 9.82 |
| P/FCF | 119.48 | 76.87 | 54.28 | 293.09 | 92.82 |
| P/FFO | 30.33 | 30.10 | 13.75 | 50.90 | 10.97 |
| P/TBV | 8.32 | 9.35 | 3.20 | 11.12 | 2.66 |
| P/AFFO | 150.21 | 104.04 | 59.64 | 404.86 | 129.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.32 | 9.35 | 3.20 | 11.12 | 2.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.53 | 3.69 | 1.49 | 5.00 | 1.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FIVE's fair value at $151.47 vs the current price of $223.53, implying -32.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $151.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $126.01 (P10) to $174.28 (P90), with a median of $149.44.
FIVE's current P/E of 48.6x compares to the industry median of 30.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +61.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
49 analysts cover FIVE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $212.19 (range: $180.00 — $255.00), implying -5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (21), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FIVE trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (43.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FIVE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3690.0% to approximately $306. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.