Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$223.53
→
Intrinsic$26.70
-88%
$8.66$26.70$60.94
Current price reflects execution expectations above 20% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $9 → Bull $61. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $61).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $39 | $45 | $51 | $58 |
| 10% | $19 | $22 | $27 | $31 |
| 12% | $7 | $10 | $13 | $17 |
| 14% | $0 | $2 | $5 | $7 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($61) with 24% growth, 9% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($9) implies 96% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 88% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($61) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$127.98M
Year 2$153.58M
Year 3$184.30M
Year 4$221.16M
Year 5$265.39M
Terminal$3.91B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$106.65MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.