MODEL VERDICT
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $1868.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $1722.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $1649.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $1648.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $1595.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $1300.79 | -30.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $1222.87 | -34.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $1260.64 | -32.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $985.36 | -47.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $1272.67 | -31.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $990.73 | -47.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $2192.78 | +17.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $683.24 | -63.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $662.89 | -64.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $1260.64 | -32.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $985.36 | -47.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $854.80 | -54.3% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 55× | 60× | 65× (Current) | 70× | 75× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (19%) | $1892 | $2064 | $2236 | $2408 | $2580 |
| Conservative (31%) | $2082 | $2272 | $2461 | $2650 | $2839 |
| Base Case (47.8%) | $2348 | $2561 | $2775 | $2988 | $3201 |
| Bull Case (65%) | $2615 | $2852 | $3090 | $3328 | $3565 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.19 | 22.83 | 12.88 | 32.32 | 7.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.48 | 18.72 | 11.14 | 25.23 | 4.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.56 | 14.87 | 8.81 | 22.59 | 4.61 |
| P/FCF | 18.51 | 16.78 | 7.37 | 32.04 | 7.77 |
| P/FFO | 17.05 | 16.99 | 9.18 | 28.38 | 6.80 |
| P/TBV | 1427.17 | 35.77 | 19.93 | 8410.80 | 3421.27 |
| P/AFFO | 20.26 | 18.98 | 10.37 | 32.74 | 8.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.11 | 4.48 | 2.78 | 13.50 | 3.85 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.54 | 1.17 | 0.68 | 3.63 | 1.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FIX's fair value at $854.80 vs the current price of $1868.23, implying -54.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $854.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $865.72 (P10) to $1149.19 (P90), with a median of $1006.03.
FIX's current P/E of 64.7x compares to the industry median of 43.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +48.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover FIX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1923.20 (range: $1800.00 — $2004.00), implying +2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.1% is 7.6 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.1%), with a Z-score of +2.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$431. (2) Multiple compression: FIX trades at the 7310th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (22.2×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FIX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.5σ, meaning margins are 2.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7690.0% to approximately $431. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.