MODEL VERDICT
Flex Ltd. (FLEX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $91.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $91.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $81.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $78.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $76.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $99.05 | +8.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $103.01 | +12.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $105.63 | +15.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $95.15 | +3.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $96.29 | +5.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $93.16 | +1.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $406.50 | +343.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $254.61 | +177.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $242.48 | +164.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $105.63 | +15.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $95.15 | +3.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $109.88 | +19.8% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (26%) | $99 | $107 | $114 | $122 | $130 |
| Conservative (43%) | $111 | $120 | $129 | $138 | $147 |
| Base Case (65.5%) | $129 | $140 | $150 | $161 | $171 |
| Bull Case (88%) | $147 | $159 | $171 | $183 | $195 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.21 | 16.84 | 11.06 | 105.76 | 36.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.80 | 20.86 | 10.75 | 24.53 | 6.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.89 | 8.84 | 6.41 | 15.17 | 3.19 |
| P/FCF | 23.54 | 21.90 | 17.84 | 32.50 | 6.30 |
| P/FFO | 10.31 | 7.91 | 7.30 | 17.46 | 3.78 |
| P/TBV | 4.70 | 4.29 | 2.41 | 7.25 | 1.55 |
| P/AFFO | 23.82 | 16.71 | 10.61 | 50.53 | 14.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92 | 2.70 | 1.79 | 4.81 | 0.98 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.93 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates FLEX's fair value at $109.88 vs the current price of $91.70, implying +19.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $109.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $86.21 (P10) to $106.15 (P90), with a median of $95.79.
FLEX's current P/E of 43.5x compares to the industry median of 50.1x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -13.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
25 analysts cover FLEX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.00 (range: $71.00 — $95.00), implying -12.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FLEX trades at the 4380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FLEX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3490.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.